Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	4	0	4	3	-	-	-	2.05	1.77	1.4
Away	1	0	0	2	1	1	2	-	2.85	2.1	1.8	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
7	4	1.53	2.38	1.22	1.1	-	-	1.14	5.5	1.7	2.1	3.2	1.36

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +1.0% | EV +1.4% | ROI -6.9% | n=490 | k=1.40

2) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -1.4% | EV -2.5% | ROI -2.9% | n=490 | k=1.77

3) No Bet | Over 2.5 Goals | Edge -2.6% | EV -4.4% | ROI -1.1% | n=490 | k=1.70

4) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -2.6% | EV -5.4% | ROI -2.6% | n=490 | k=2.10

AI-agent: At 30 minutes into the St Pauli vs Mainz Bundesliga match, Mainz leads 1-0. Market pressure favors the away side with odds dropping 39% from pre-match levels, but shot data does not confirm dominance for either team. Recent play shows no sustained pressure from either side, and although Mainz is more active than in their last meeting, St Pauli is underperforming. Historical data for a +1.5 handicap on St Pauli shows a positive win rate but a negative ROI, indicating weak historical support. The best model suggestion is a +1.5 handicap on St Pauli with a small positive edge and expected value, but the expected return is below the threshold for a confident bet. Therefore, this is a monitoring situation rather than a clear betting opportunity, and caution is advised due to limited confirmation and historical uncertainty.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388593 | minute: 30