Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	4	0	4	3	-	-	-	2.05	1.82	1.4
Away	1	0	0	2	1	1	2	-	2.85	2.02	1.8	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
7.5	4	1.5	2.5	1.22	1.08	-	-	1.14	5.5	1.75	2.05	3.4	1.33

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +0.1% | EV +0.2% | ROI +1.7% | n=482 | k=1.82

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +1.9% | EV +2.6% | ROI -3.6% | n=482 | k=1.40

3) No Bet | Over 2.5 Goals | Edge -2.2% | EV -3.9% | ROI -2.3% | n=482 | k=1.75

4) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -3.7% | EV -7.6% | ROI -9.4% | n=482 | k=2.05

AI-agent: At 34 minutes, Mainz leads St Pauli 1-0 in this Bundesliga match. Market pressure favors the guests, with odds dropping by 40% from pre-match levels, reflecting the current score. Despite Mainz's lead and increased activity compared to previous encounters, the game lacks clear dominance or shot confirmation for either side. Historical data for similar situations suggests a slight edge for St Pauli with AH +1.5, but the negative ROI and failed historical check weaken confidence. The model identifies AH +1.5 for St Pauli as the best option with a modest positive edge and expected value, yet the stake is not opened due to EV below the threshold. Top-4 markets recommend watching AH +1 and AH +1.5 with small positive edges but advise against betting on over or under 2.5 goals. This is a monitoring phase rather than a firm betting opportunity, emphasizing cautious risk management.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388593 | minute: 34