Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	4	0	4	3	-	-	-	2.05	1.82	1.4
Away	1	0	0	6	1	5	4	-	2.85	2.02	1.8	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
7.5	4	1.5	2.5	1.22	1.08	-	-	1.2	4.5	1.88	1.98	3.75	1.28

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +1.1% | EV +1.5% | ROI -3.7% | n=474 | k=1.40

2) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -0.6% | EV -1.1% | ROI +1.5% | n=474 | k=1.82

3) No Bet | Over 2.5 Goals | Edge -1.0% | EV -2.0% | ROI -0.3% | n=474 | k=1.88

4) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -2.9% | EV -5.8% | ROI -7.5% | n=474 | k=1.98

AI-agent: At 37 minutes, Mainz leads St Pauli 1-0 with no red cards. Market pressure favors Mainz, reflected by a 40% drop in odds from pre-match levels, matching their stronger shot activity and recent dominance. The scoreline aligns with the match flow, with Mainz showing more intensity than in their last meeting, while St Pauli underperforms. Historical data for a +1.5 handicap on St Pauli shows a 68.8% win rate but a negative ROI, making the historical edge weak. The model suggests a slight advantage on AH_HOME+1.5 with a 1.1% edge and 1.5% expected value, but this does not meet the minimum threshold for a bet. Therefore, this is a watch situation rather than a clear betting opportunity, and caution is advised given the current risk profile.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388593 | minute: 37