Match Replay

Step 33 of 72. Current minute: 44 .

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	4	0	4	3	-	-	-	2.05	1.85	2.75
Away	2	0	0	9	3	6	5	-	1.43	2	1.8	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
29	10	1.07	9	1.06	1.01	-	-	-	-	1.25	4	2.1	1.73

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +31.3% | EV +62.7% | ROI +47.6% | n=166 | k=2.00

2) No Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge -2.2% | EV -3.8% | ROI -6.4% | n=166 | k=1.73

3) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge -0.9% | EV -2.6% | ROI -5.6% | n=166 | k=2.75

4) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -1.9% | EV -7.6% | ROI +8.4% | n=166 | k=4.00

AI-agent: At 44 minutes, Mainz leads St Pauli 2-0 with no red cards. Market pressure strongly favors Mainz, with odds dropping 57% from pre-match levels, reflecting their active play and dominance in shots. Historical data supports a bet on Mainz with a -1 handicap, showing a 78.4% win rate and a solid ROI of 47.6%. The model confirms this with a 31.3% edge and expected value over 60%, though no new bet is opened as the position is already held. This is a good opportunity to back Mainz with handicap -1, but risk should be managed carefully. Other markets like under goals are not recommended now. Overall, this is a strong candidate for betting, supported by current match dynamics and historical trends.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388593 | minute: 44