Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	4	0	4	3	-	-	-	2.05	1.85	3.55
Away	2	0	0	12	5	7	5	-	1.27	2	1.8	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
51	15	1.03	13	1.03	1	-	-	-	-	1.5	2.62	3.4	1.33

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +34.5% | EV +69.0% | ROI +67.0% | n=182 | k=2.00

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +1.4% | EV +4.9% | ROI -16.1% | n=182 | k=3.55

3) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -2.6% | EV -6.9% | ROI +11.1% | n=182 | k=2.62

4) No Bet | Over 2.5 Goals | Edge -2.1% | EV -3.2% | ROI -13.5% | n=182 | k=1.50

AI-agent: At the 61st minute, Mainz leads St Pauli 2-0 in a Bundesliga match. Market pressure clearly favors the away side, with odds dropping 59% from pre-match levels, reflecting Mainz's active play and dominance in shots. Historical data strongly supports a -1 handicap for Mainz with an 89.1% win rate and a 67% ROI, confirming good value at current odds of 2.00. The model confirms this edge with an expected value of +69%, though no new bet is advised as the position is already covered. This is a strong candidate for backing Mainz -1, but risk management remains important. Other markets like over/under 2.5 goals show no value currently, so monitoring continues rather than mandatory entries.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388593 | minute: 61