Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	6	0	6	7	-	-	-	2.05	1.85	4.15
Away	2	0	0	16	6	10	6	-	1.22	2	1.8	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
67	19	1.02	19	1.02	1	-	-	-	-	1.88	1.98	5.5	1.14

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +35.4% | EV +70.9% | ROI +82.0% | n=172 | k=2.00

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +1.2% | EV +4.8% | ROI -39.7% | n=172 | k=4.15

3) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -2.9% | EV -5.8% | ROI +20.6% | n=172 | k=1.98

4) No Bet | Over 2.5 Goals | Edge -1.0% | EV -2.0% | ROI -27.0% | n=172 | k=1.88

AI-agent: At the 75th minute, Mainz leads St Pauli 2-0 in a Bundesliga match. Market pressure strongly favors the away side, with odds dropping 59% from pre-match levels, reflecting Mainz's active shot count and overall control despite no sustained pressure recently. Historical data supports a -1 handicap on Mainz with a 96.1% win rate and an 82% ROI, confirming a strong edge and expected value. The model confirms this bet with a 35.4% edge and 70.9% EV at odds of 2.00, though no new bet is opened as the position is already covered. This is the best betting opportunity here, but risk control remains important. Other markets suggest watching or no bet, indicating this is not a mandatory entry but a favorable scenario to monitor or hold if already invested.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388593 | minute: 75