Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	8	2	6	7	-	-	-	2.05	2.25	1.1
Away	2	0	0	17	6	11	7	-	6.8	1.68	1.8	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
301	13	1.03	1.5	1.33	1.36	-	-	-	-	-	-	6.25	1.12

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Double Chance X2 | Edge +19.0% | EV +25.9% | ROI +35.6% | n=198 | k=1.36

2) Watch | Double Chance 12 | Edge +19.7% | EV +26.3% | ROI +20.5% | n=198 | k=1.33

3) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -0.3% | EV -0.7% | ROI +5.6% | n=198 | k=2.25

4) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -3.8% | EV -6.4% | ROI -5.3% | n=198 | k=1.68

AI-agent: At the 90th minute, Mainz leads St Pauli 2-1 in a closely contested Bundesliga match. The market shows no strong signals or significant odds drops from pre-match levels, reflecting the balanced nature of the game, although Mainz has been more active in shots. The home side is pressing hard in the final moments, matching the scoreline well. Historical data from 198 similar matches supports a high probability (over 90%) that one team will win without a draw, with a positive ROI of 20.5%. The best model suggestion is a double chance on either team to win (12) with a 19.7% edge and 26.3% expected value, but the betting window for this market closed after the 86th minute. Current top markets recommend watching the double chance options with strong edges but advise against new bets on Asian handicaps due to negative expected value. This is a monitoring situation rather than a mandatory bet opportunity, emphasizing risk control in the final moments.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388593 | minute: 90