Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	2	0	2	3	-	-	-	2.05	1.7	1.45
Away	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	-	2.67	2.1	1.8	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
5.5	4	1.61	2.2	1.22	1.14	-	-	1.07	9	1.4	3	2.2	1.67

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +0.6% | EV +0.9% | ROI -4.5% | n=281 | k=1.45

2) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -2.7% | EV -5.7% | ROI -3.7% | n=281 | k=2.10

3) No Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge -2.3% | EV -3.8% | ROI -9.9% | n=281 | k=1.67

4) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -3.7% | EV -6.3% | ROI -5.3% | n=281 | k=1.70

AI-agent: At 10 minutes into the match, Mainz leads St Pauli 1-0, with the market showing increased confidence in the away side as odds have dropped by 35% since pre-match. Despite this, shot data does not clearly favor either team, and the home side is applying pressure recently. Historical data for similar situations suggests a moderate advantage for the home team with AH +1.5, but the expected return is negative, indicating weak historical support. The model identifies a slight edge on AH +1.5 for St Pauli with an EV of +0.9%, yet this does not meet the threshold for a confident bet. The top-4 market consensus recommends watching this AH +1.5 option rather than betting, reflecting a cautious stance given the current game dynamics and historical uncertainty.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388593 | minute: 10