Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	2	0	2	3	-	-	-	2.05	1.7	1.45
Away	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	-	2.67	2.1	1.8	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
5.5	3.75	1.61	2.2	1.25	1.14	-	-	1.08	8	1.44	2.75	2.38	1.57

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +1.1% | EV +1.6% | ROI -5.3% | n=323 | k=1.45

2) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -2.8% | EV -4.8% | ROI -5.6% | n=323 | k=1.70

3) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -3.6% | EV -7.6% | ROI -3.3% | n=323 | k=2.10

4) No Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge -2.7% | EV -4.2% | ROI -12.5% | n=323 | k=1.57

AI-agent: At 12 minutes into the match, Mainz leads St Pauli 1-0, with no red cards yet. Market pressure favors the away side, as their odds have dropped by 35% from pre-match levels considering the current score. However, shot data does not clearly support dominance by either team, though St Pauli is applying pressure recently. Historical data for similar situations is weak and does not confirm a profitable bet on St Pauli +1.5 handicap, with a negative ROI. The model suggests a slight edge on St Pauli +1.5 at 1.45 odds, but the expected value is below the threshold for opening a bet. This is a watch situation rather than a clear betting opportunity, so caution is advised given the moderate edge and historical uncertainty.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388593 | minute: 12