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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	4	0	4	3	-	-	-	2.05	1.68	1.45
Away	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	-	2.67	2.15	1.8	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
6	3.75	1.57	2.25	1.25	1.12	-	-	1.1	7	1.53	2.5	2.62	1.5

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +3.2% | EV +4.7% | ROI -2.1% | n=416 | k=1.45

2) No Bet | Over 2.5 Goals | Edge -2.3% | EV -3.5% | ROI +2.8% | n=416 | k=1.53

3) No Bet | HOME | Edge -0.3% | EV -1.8% | ROI +13.9% | n=416 | k=6.00

4) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -2.9% | EV -4.9% | ROI -3.1% | n=416 | k=1.68

AI-agent: At 18 minutes, Mainz leads St Pauli 1-0 in a match where the market increasingly favors the visitors, with odds dropping 37% from pre-match levels. Despite Mainz's lead, the game shows no clear dominance in shots, and St Pauli is applying pressure recently. Historical data for similar situations is weak, with a negative ROI and no confirmed edge for a handicap bet on St Pauli +1.5. The model suggests a potential value bet on AH_HOME+1.5 with a modest edge and expected value, but the historical check is not passed, so this is a watch situation rather than a firm recommendation. Other top markets do not support a confident bet, indicating cautious monitoring rather than entry now.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388593 | minute: 18