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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	4	0	4	3	-	-	-	2.05	1.7	1.45
Away	1	0	0	2	1	1	2	-	2.67	2.1	1.8	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
6	3.75	1.57	2.25	1.25	1.12	-	-	1.11	6.5	1.57	2.35	2.75	1.44

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +3.7% | EV +5.4% | ROI -1.9% | n=473 | k=1.45

2) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -1.6% | EV -2.7% | ROI -2.9% | n=473 | k=1.70

3) No Bet | Over 2.5 Goals | Edge -2.7% | EV -4.2% | ROI -1.8% | n=473 | k=1.57

4) No Bet | HOME | Edge -0.3% | EV -1.8% | ROI +0.2% | n=473 | k=6.00

AI-agent: At 24 minutes, Mainz leads 1-0 against St Pauli, with the market favoring the visitors as their odds have dropped by 37% since pre-match, reflecting the current score. However, there is no clear dominance in shots or sustained pressure from either side recently. Historically, similar situations show a moderate edge for a +1.5 handicap on St Pauli, but the historical ROI is negative and the model’s entry rule is not confirmed, so no new bet is opened. The best option is to watch the +1.5 handicap on St Pauli, which has a positive expected value but requires cautious risk management. This is a monitoring scenario rather than a mandatory bet opportunity.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388593 | minute: 24