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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	7	1	6	7	-	-	-	2.05	1.85	4.25
Away	2	0	0	16	6	10	6	-	1.21	2	1.8	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
67	21	1.01	21	1.01	1	-	-	-	-	1.98	1.88	6	1.12

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +35.6% | EV +71.3% | ROI +88.2% | n=170 | k=2.00

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +0.9% | EV +3.8% | ROI -55.0% | n=170 | k=4.25

3) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -3.0% | EV -5.7% | ROI +23.5% | n=170 | k=1.88

4) No Bet | Over 2.5 Goals | Edge -0.9% | EV -1.9% | ROI -32.6% | n=170 | k=1.98

AI-agent: At the 78th minute, Mainz leads St Pauli 2-0 in this Bundesliga match. Market pressure strongly favors Mainz, with odds dropping 59% from pre-match levels, reflecting the current scoreline and match dynamics. Although the game has been fairly balanced, Mainz has shown more activity in shots, and both teams are more aggressive than in their previous 0-0 draw. Historical data supports a strong edge for Mainz on the -1 Asian Handicap, with a 98.7% win rate over 170 similar matches and an ROI of 88.2%. The model confirms this with a 35.6% edge and 71.3% expected value at odds of 2.00. However, no new bet is opened as this position is already held or covered in the portfolio. This is a clear candidate for betting with controlled risk, while other markets like over/under 2.5 goals show no positive expected value and are not recommended currently.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388593 | minute: 78