Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	7	0	7	0	-	-	-	2	1.88	1.38
Away	1	0	0	4	2	2	4	-	3	1.98	1.85	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
10	4	1.4	2.75	1.22	1.06	-	-	1.28	3.75	2.3	1.6	5	1.17

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +5.4% | EV +10.0% | ROI +2.3% | n=421 | k=1.88

2) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +1.6% | EV +2.5% | ROI +4.5% | n=421 | k=1.60

3) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +6.2% | EV +8.5% | ROI -3.3% | n=421 | k=1.38

4) Watch | Under 1.5 Goals | Edge +2.9% | EV +11.0% | ROI -12.7% | n=421 | k=3.75

AI-agent: At 54 minutes, FC Koln leads Union Berlin 1-0, with market pressure favoring the visitors as their odds dropped significantly since pre-match. Despite Koln's lead and increased activity compared to previous encounters, the game balance remains tight with no clear dominance in shots. Historical data for similar situations shows a positive edge for a home handicap (+1.5), but the return on investment is negative, indicating weak historical confirmation. The model suggests a potential bet on the home handicap +1.5 with a moderate edge and expected value, yet the entry rule is not fully confirmed due to the historical check failure. Current top markets recommend monitoring this handicap and under 2.5 goals options, reflecting a cautious approach rather than a firm bet, emphasizing risk control in this close contest.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388594 | minute: 54