Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	2	0	0	13	4	9	9	-	5.25	2.2	1.45	1.32	-
Away	1	0	0	2	2	0	3	-	-	3.3	2.67	1.7	1.16

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.22	4.5	34	1	1.18	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	2.25	1.68

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +14.5% | EV +19.2% | ROI +31.8% | n=192 | k=1.32

2) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +4.5% | EV +7.6% | ROI +13.4% | n=192 | k=1.68

3) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +6.9% | EV +11.8% | ROI -4.5% | n=192 | k=1.70

4) Watch | Double Chance X2 | Edge +6.0% | EV +23.9% | ROI -33.3% | n=192 | k=4.00

AI-agent: At the 82nd minute with Alaves leading 2-1 over Mallorca, the market shows strong support for the home side, with odds dropping 42% from pre-match levels reflecting the current score. The match has been fairly balanced, but Alaves has been more active in shots. Recent pressure is shared without clear dominance. Historical data for similar situations strongly favors a +1 handicap for Alaves, showing a 100% win rate and a 31.8% ROI over 192 matches. The model identifies AH_HOME+1 as the best option with a 14.5% edge and 19.2% expected value, but the entry rule is not yet triggered due to current match dynamics. Top-4 markets suggest watching AH_HOME+1 and other cautious plays rather than betting now, emphasizing risk control and monitoring rather than mandatory entry.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391129 | minute: 82