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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	2	0	0	8	2	6	7	-	4.25	1.73	1.45	1.32	-
Away	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	-	-	3.3	2.67	2.15	1.21

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.14	6	51	1	1.12	5.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	2.4	1.6

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Double Chance X2 | Edge +7.6% | EV +41.8% | ROI +12.8% | n=200 | k=5.50

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +14.5% | EV +19.3% | ROI +31.7% | n=200 | k=1.32

3) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +10.4% | EV +22.3% | ROI +5.1% | n=200 | k=2.15

4) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +4.2% | EV +6.8% | ROI -4.0% | n=200 | k=1.60

AI-agent: At the 79th minute with Alaves leading 2-1, the market favors the home side, reflected by a 46% drop in odds from pre-match levels. The game has been closely contested, with Alaves showing more activity in shots, but no sustained pressure recently. Historical data strongly supports a +1 handicap for Alaves, showing a 100% win rate in 200 similar matches and a solid ROI of 31.7%. The model identifies AH_HOME+1 as the best option with a 14.5% edge and 19.3% expected value, yet the entry conditions are not fully met due to the current match dynamics. Top-4 markets suggest monitoring this opportunity rather than immediate betting, emphasizing risk control in this tight scenario.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391129 | minute: 79