Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	6	2	4	3	-	-	2.75	1.38	1.32	-
Away	1	0	0	6	2	4	3	-	-	3.3	3	1.43	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
23	3.6	1.36	3	1.25	1.01	-	-	2.2	1.7	10	1.06	4	1.25

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +23.9% | EV +34.1% | ROI +40.9% | n=158 | k=1.42

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +9.5% | EV +12.6% | ROI -7.0% | n=158 | k=1.32

3) No Bet | Under 1.5 Goals | Edge -2.5% | EV -4.3% | ROI -2.1% | n=158 | k=1.70

4) No Bet | Over 1.5 Goals | Edge -1.8% | EV -3.9% | ROI -6.7% | n=158 | k=2.20

AI-agent: At 78 minutes in the Osasuna vs Sevilla match, Sevilla leads 1-0 with no red cards. Market pressure favors the away team, reflected by a 69% drop in odds since pre-match, though shot data does not strongly confirm dominance. The game tempo is close to their previous meeting, which ended 1-0 at this stage. Historical analysis strongly supports under 3.5 goals with a 100% win rate in 158 similar matches and a 25% ROI. The model confirms a value bet on under 3.5 goals with a 15.1% edge and 18.8% expected value, but no new bet is advised as this position is already covered. Top-4 markets suggest watching Asian Handicap +1 for either side due to positive edges and EV, but no clear bet opportunity is present. This is a monitoring situation rather than a mandatory entry, emphasizing risk control and patience.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391134 | minute: 78