Match Replay

Step 19 of 93. Current minute: 21 .

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	-	-	-	1.95	1.93	1.5
Away	1	0	0	5	2	3	3	-	2.5	1.93	1.9	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
6.5	4	1.5	2.5	1.22	1.11	-	-	1.07	9	1.36	3.2	2.1	1.73

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +3.5% | EV +6.1% | ROI +2.4% | n=1636 | k=1.73

2) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +2.3% | EV +7.3% | ROI +5.6% | n=1636 | k=3.20

3) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -0.6% | EV -1.1% | ROI NA | n=1636 | k=1.92

4) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge -2.0% | EV -3.0% | ROI NA | n=1636 | k=1.50

AI-agent: At 21 minutes, Sociedad leads Vallecano 1-0 in a closely contested LaLiga match. Market pressure favors a draw with odds dropping 9% from pre-match levels, reflecting the tight game and Sociedad's slightly higher shot activity. Historical data supports under 3.5 total goals with an 83.8% success rate and positive ROI, aligning with the current low-scoring trend. The best model candidate is under 3.5 goals at 1.73 odds, showing a moderate edge and expected value, but entry conditions are not fully met yet, so this is a watch situation rather than a firm bet. Risk control advises monitoring the match flow before committing to a wager.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 21