Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	3	1	2	1	-	-	-	2.1	1.8	1.43
Away	1	0	0	6	3	3	3	-	2.75	2.05	1.77	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
3	2.88	2.6	1.44	1.36	1.36	-	-	-	-	1.12	6	1.57	2.38

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +25.5% | EV +45.9% | ROI -1.1% | n=488 | k=1.80

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +14.9% | EV +21.2% | ROI -4.8% | n=488 | k=1.42

3) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +4.3% | EV +10.3% | ROI +3.7% | n=488 | k=2.38

4) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +1.5% | EV +9.0% | ROI +7.0% | n=488 | k=6.00

AI-agent: At the 29th minute with the score tied 1-1 between Vallecano and Sociedad, the market is leaning towards a draw, with odds dropping 13% from pre-match levels reflecting the current score. The game has been balanced, though Sociedad has been more active in shots. Recent play shows no sustained pressure from either side, and the scoreline matches the match dynamics. Historical data for similar situations shows a 66.8% chance for the home team with AH +1.5, but the negative ROI of -4.8% means this is not a confirmed entry. The model signals a potential bet on AH +1.5 with a 14.9% edge and 21.2% expected value, yet the historical check fails to validate opening a new bet. The top markets suggest watching AH +1 and AH +1.5 with positive edges but negative or slightly negative ROI, indicating this is a monitoring phase rather than a clear betting opportunity. Caution is advised given the mixed signals and the lack of strong historical confirmation.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 29