Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	3	1	2	1	-	-	-	1.9	1.8	1.43
Away	1	0	0	6	3	3	3	-	2.75	2.05	1.95	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
2.75	2.88	2.88	1.36	1.36	1.4	-	-	-	-	1.14	5.5	1.67	2.2

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +16.5% | EV +23.5% | ROI +28.4% | n=243 | k=1.42

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +27.9% | EV +50.2% | ROI +44.4% | n=243 | k=1.80

3) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +4.3% | EV +9.6% | ROI +14.1% | n=243 | k=2.20

4) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +1.6% | EV +8.5% | ROI -2.7% | n=243 | k=5.50

AI-agent: At 37 minutes in this live LaLiga match between Vallecano and Sociedad, the score is tied 1-1. The market favors a draw with odds dropping 13% from pre-match levels, reflecting the balanced but slightly more active attacking play from Sociedad. Historical data supports a strong edge on the home handicap +1.5 with a 90.1% success rate and a 28.4% ROI, confirmed by the model showing a 16.5% edge and 23.5% expected value. Although the position on AH_HOME+1.5 is already held or covered in the portfolio, this remains the best bet with controlled risk. Other markets like AH_HOME+1 and under 3.5 or 2.5 goals are on watch, indicating a monitoring phase rather than a mandatory entry now.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 37