Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	4	1	3	1	-	-	-	1.85	1.8	1.43
Away	1	0	0	6	3	3	3	-	2.75	2.05	2	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
2.75	2.75	3	1.36	1.4	1.4	-	-	-	-	1.17	5	1.73	2.1

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +17.4% | EV +24.8% | ROI +28.0% | n=256 | k=1.42

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +29.1% | EV +52.3% | ROI +42.3% | n=256 | k=1.80

3) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +4.2% | EV +8.9% | ROI +13.2% | n=256 | k=2.10

4) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +1.6% | EV +8.2% | ROI -10.2% | n=256 | k=5.00

AI-agent: At the 39th minute with the score tied at 1-1 between Vallecano and Sociedad, the market shows increased confidence in a draw, with odds dropping 17% from pre-match levels. The game has been balanced, though Sociedad has been more active in shots, while Vallecano is applying pressure recently. Historical data supports a strong edge for a +1.5 handicap on Vallecano, with an 89.8% win rate and 28% ROI over 256 similar matches. The model confirms this bet with a 17.4% edge and 24.8% expected value, but no new position is opened as this bet is already covered. The top recommendation is to back Vallecano +1.5, considering the solid historical performance and current market pressure, while monitoring other options like AH+1 and under 3.5 goals for potential opportunities. This is a calculated bet with risk control in place.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 39