Match Replay

Step 38 of 93. Current minute: 44 .

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	5	1	4	2	-	-	-	1.77	1.8	1.43
Away	1	0	0	6	3	3	3	-	2.75	2.05	2.1	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
2.75	2.62	3.2	1.33	1.44	1.4	-	-	-	-	1.2	4.5	1.9	1.95

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +19.3% | EV +27.5% | ROI +27.6% | n=296 | k=1.42

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +31.5% | EV +56.6% | ROI +42.5% | n=296 | k=1.80

3) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +4.8% | EV +9.3% | ROI +13.3% | n=296 | k=1.95

4) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +1.8% | EV +8.0% | ROI -2.7% | n=296 | k=4.50

AI-agent: At the 44th minute with the score tied at 1-1, the market is leaning towards a draw, with odds dropping 20% from pre-match levels reflecting the current scoreline. The game has been balanced, though Sociedad has been more active in shots, while Vallecano is applying pressure in the latest phase. Historical data supports a strong edge for the home handicap +1.5, showing an 89.5% win rate and a 27.6% ROI over 296 similar matches. The model confirms this bet with a 19.3% edge and 27.5% expected value, but no new position is opened as this bet is already covered in the portfolio. Among top markets, the best bet remains AH_HOME+1.5 with good risk control, while other options like AH_HOME+1 and under goals are on watch, indicating a monitoring phase rather than a mandatory entry.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 44