Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	5	1	4	2	-	-	-	1.82	1.8	1.43
Away	1	0	0	6	3	3	4	-	2.75	2.05	2.02	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
2.75	2.62	3.1	1.33	1.44	1.4	-	-	-	-	1.22	4.33	1.95	1.9

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +19.5% | EV +27.8% | ROI +28.0% | n=295 | k=1.42

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +31.6% | EV +56.8% | ROI +43.0% | n=295 | k=1.80

3) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +4.7% | EV +9.0% | ROI +15.3% | n=295 | k=1.90

4) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +2.0% | EV +8.5% | ROI -1.6% | n=295 | k=4.33

AI-agent: At the 45th minute with the score tied at 1-1, the market strongly favors a draw, with odds dropping 24% from pre-match levels reflecting the current score. The game has been balanced, though Sociedad has been more active in shots, while Vallecano is applying pressure in the latest phase. Historical data supports a home handicap +1.5 bet with a high success rate of nearly 90% and a solid ROI of 28%. The model confirms this bet with a significant edge of +19.5% and expected value of +27.8%, but no new position is opened as this bet is already covered. Among top markets, the best bet is AH_HOME+1.5, offering good risk control and value. Other options like AH_HOME+1 and under 3.5 or 2.5 goals are on watch, indicating a monitoring phase rather than a mandatory entry.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 45