Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	5	1	4	2	-	-	-	1.85	1.8	1.43
Away	1	0	0	6	3	3	4	-	2.75	2.05	2	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
2.88	2.62	3	1.36	1.44	1.36	-	-	-	-	1.22	4.33	1.98	1.88

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +19.5% | EV +27.8% | ROI +28.0% | n=295 | k=1.42

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +31.4% | EV +56.5% | ROI +43.0% | n=295 | k=1.80

3) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +4.6% | EV +8.7% | ROI +13.8% | n=295 | k=1.88

4) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +2.0% | EV +8.5% | ROI -1.6% | n=295 | k=4.33

AI-agent: At the 45th minute with the score tied at 1-1 between Vallecano and Sociedad, the market shows increased confidence in a draw, with odds dropping 24% from pre-match levels. The game has been balanced, though Sociedad has been more active in shots, while Vallecano is applying pressure in the latest phase. Historical data supports a strong edge for the home handicap +1.5, with a high win rate and solid ROI, confirmed by the model's 19.5% edge and 27.8% expected value. The best betting opportunity is on AH_HOME+1.5 with a fair odds of 1.42, but no new position is opened as it is already covered. Other markets like AH_HOME+1 and under 3.5 goals are on watch, indicating a monitoring phase rather than a mandatory bet. Risk control remains important given the match dynamics and market signals.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 45