Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	5	1	4	2	-	-	-	1.9	1.8	1.43
Away	1	0	0	7	3	4	4	-	2.75	2.05	1.95	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
3	2.5	3.1	1.33	1.5	1.36	-	-	-	-	1.25	4	2.2	1.67

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +20.3% | EV +28.9% | ROI +31.8% | n=306 | k=1.42

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +32.3% | EV +58.2% | ROI +48.2% | n=306 | k=1.80

3) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +3.3% | EV +5.6% | ROI +10.5% | n=306 | k=1.67

4) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +2.0% | EV +8.0% | ROI +12.4% | n=306 | k=4.00

AI-agent: At the 48th minute, the score is tied 1-1 between Vallecano and Sociedad in LaLiga. The market is favoring the draw with odds dropping 24% from pre-match levels, reflecting the balanced but slightly more active play from Sociedad in shots. Historical data supports a strong edge for the home handicap +1.5, with a 92.5% win rate and 31.8% ROI over 306 similar matches. The model confirms this with a +20.3% edge and +28.9% expected value at odds of 1.43, though no new bet is opened as this position is already held or covered. The top recommendation is to bet on AH_HOME+1.5 with risk control, while other markets like AH_HOME+1 and under 3.5 goals are on watch, indicating a monitoring phase rather than mandatory entries.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 48