Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	8	3	5	2	-	-	-	2.05	1.8	1.43
Away	1	0	0	7	3	4	4	-	2.75	2.05	1.8	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
3.5	2.25	3	1.36	1.57	1.28	-	-	-	-	1.4	3	2.75	1.44

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +24.9% | EV +35.5% | ROI +35.7% | n=357 | k=1.42

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +37.7% | EV +67.9% | ROI +54.6% | n=357 | k=1.80

3) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +2.3% | EV +6.8% | ROI +18.5% | n=357 | k=3.00

4) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +2.1% | EV +3.1% | ROI +10.8% | n=357 | k=1.44

AI-agent: At the 59th minute with the score tied at 1-1 between Vallecano and Sociedad, the market strongly favors a draw, reflected by a 32% drop in odds from pre-match levels. The shot data does not clearly support dominance by either side, though Vallecano is applying more pressure recently. Historical data for similar situations shows a strong edge for the home team with AH +1.5, boasting a 95.2% win rate and a 35.7% ROI over 357 matches. The model confirms this bet with a 24.9% edge and 35.5% expected value at odds of 1.43. Since this position is already open or covered, no new bet is advised now. The top recommendation is to back AH +1.5 with risk control, while other markets like AH +1 and under 2.5 or 3.5 goals are on watch for potential opportunities. Overall, this is a monitoring situation with a solid historical and model-backed edge on the home handicap, but no urgent new entry is recommended.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 59