Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	11	5	6	4	-	-	-	1.95	1.65	3.55
Away	3	0	0	11	7	4	4	-	1.27	2.3	1.9	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
51	17	1.02	17	1.02	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +40.1% | EV +92.2% | ROI -80.7% | n=112 | k=2.30

2) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge -3.0% | EV -10.6% | ROI +21.8% | n=112 | k=3.55

3) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -44.2% | EV -72.9% | ROI +52.2% | n=112 | k=1.65

AI-agent: At the 75th minute in the Vallecano vs Sociedad match, Sociedad leads 3-1. Market pressure favors the away side with odds dropping 61% from pre-match levels, reflecting their active play and shot dominance despite the close scoreline. However, recent minutes show no sustained pressure from either team. Historical data for the away -1 handicap is weak and shows a negative ROI of -80.7%, so the model has not confirmed a bet despite a strong edge (+40.1%) and expected value (+92.2%). This is a watch situation rather than a mandatory bet, and caution is advised given the historical underperformance of similar scenarios.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 75