Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	11	5	6	4	-	-	-	1.95	1.65	3.55
Away	3	0	0	11	7	4	4	-	1.27	2.3	1.9	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
51	17	1.02	17	1.02	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +40.1% | EV +92.3% | ROI +87.3% | n=51 | k=2.30

2) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge -3.2% | EV -11.4% | ROI +11.4% | n=51 | k=3.55

3) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -44.2% | EV -72.9% | ROI -67.4% | n=51 | k=1.65

AI-agent: At the 80th minute with Sociedad leading 3-1 against Vallecano, the market strongly favors the away side, with odds dropping by 61% from pre-match levels. The match has been fairly balanced but Sociedad has shown more offensive activity, confirmed by shot statistics and a scoreline reflecting the current tempo. Historical data supports a -1 Asian Handicap on Sociedad with a 97.2% win rate and an 87.3% ROI over 51 similar matches, indicating a solid edge. The model currently recommends a bet on AH_AWAY-1 at 2.30 odds, with a significant expected value and edge, though no repeated bets are advised at this stage. This is a clear opportunity to consider a stake on Sociedad with risk control, while other handicap options do not present value and should be avoided.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 80