Match Replay

Step 80 of 93. Current minute: 89 .

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	2	0	0	15	6	9	5	-	-	-	1.95	1.7	1.14
Away	3	0	0	11	7	4	4	-	5.75	2.2	1.9	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
41	5	1.18	4.5	1.17	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +26.3% | EV +44.7% | ROI -2.3% | n=53 | k=1.70

2) Watch | Double Chance 1X | Edge +3.0% | EV +13.7% | ROI -66.0% | n=53 | k=4.50

3) No Bet | DRAW | Edge -3.6% | EV -17.8% | ROI -81.1% | n=53 | k=5.00

4) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -30.6% | EV -67.3% | ROI +1.5% | n=53 | k=2.20

AI-agent: At the 89th minute with Vallecano trailing 2-3 to Sociedad, the market shows increased confidence in the away side, with odds dropping 55% from pre-match levels. However, shot data does not clearly favor either team, and there is no sustained pressure in the final minutes. Historically, similar situations have weak support for a home handicap +1 bet, with negative ROI and a failed historical check. The model identifies a +26.3% edge on AH_HOME+1 with an expected value of +44.7%, but the entry window closed after the 86th minute, so no new bets are advised now. Top-4 markets recommend watching AH_HOME+1 and DC1X but not placing bets, indicating a monitoring phase rather than a strong entry opportunity. Caution is advised given the current game balance and historical data limitations.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 89