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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	3	1	2	1	-	-	-	1.95	1.8	1.43
Away	1	0	0	6	3	3	3	-	2.75	2.05	1.9	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
2.88	2.88	2.75	1.4	1.36	1.36	-	-	-	-	1.14	5.5	1.67	2.2

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +16.2% | EV +23.0% | ROI +29.1% | n=234 | k=1.42

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +27.2% | EV +49.0% | ROI +45.6% | n=234 | k=1.80

3) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +4.3% | EV +9.6% | ROI +13.8% | n=234 | k=2.20

4) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +1.6% | EV +8.5% | ROI -1.3% | n=234 | k=5.50

AI-agent: At the 36th minute with the score tied at 1-1 between Vallecano and Sociedad, the market is favoring a draw, reflected by a 13% drop in odds from pre-match levels. The game remains balanced, though Sociedad shows more activity in shots and tempo, consistent with their stronger performance in the last head-to-head. Historical data supports a strong edge for the home handicap +1.5, with over 90% win rate and a 29.1% ROI across 234 matches. The model confirms this with a 16.2% edge and 23.0% expected value, but no new bet is opened as this position is already covered. Among top markets, the best bet is on AH_HOME+1.5, offering a good risk-reward profile, while other options like AH_HOME+1 and under goals are watch-only, suggesting monitoring rather than immediate entry.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 36