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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	5	1	4	2	-	-	-	1.9	1.8	1.43
Away	1	0	0	6	3	3	4	-	2.75	2.05	1.95	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
3	2.5	3	1.36	1.5	1.36	-	-	-	-	1.28	3.75	2.1	1.73

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +20.1% | EV +28.7% | ROI +29.7% | n=301 | k=1.42

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +32.1% | EV +57.7% | ROI +44.7% | n=301 | k=1.80

3) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +3.5% | EV +6.1% | ROI +11.3% | n=301 | k=1.73

4) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +2.2% | EV +8.2% | ROI -5.3% | n=301 | k=3.75

AI-agent: At 47 minutes with the score tied 1-1 between Vallecano and Sociedad, the market shows increased confidence in a draw, with odds dropping 24% from pre-match levels. The game has been balanced, though Sociedad has been more active in shots, while Vallecano is applying pressure in the latest phase. Historical data supports a strong edge on the home handicap +1.5 with a 91% win rate and nearly 30% ROI over 301 matches. The model confirms this with a 20.1% edge and 28.7% expected value at odds of 1.43, though no new bet is opened as this position is already covered. The top recommended bet remains AH_HOME+1.5, offering good value but should be approached with usual risk management. Other markets like AH_HOME+1 and under 3.5 goals are on watch, indicating monitoring rather than mandatory entries.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 47