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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	2	0	0	12	6	6	4	-	-	-	2	1.65	1.24
Away	2	0	0	10	6	4	4	-	3.9	2.3	1.85	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
4	1.83	3.75	1.25	1.83	1.22	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +33.7% | EV +55.7% | ROI +52.5% | n=110 | k=1.65

2) Watch | HOME | Edge +0.6% | EV +2.3% | ROI -23.6% | n=110 | k=4.00

3) No Bet | Double Chance 12 | Edge -3.4% | EV -6.2% | ROI -35.0% | n=110 | k=1.83

4) No Bet | AWAY | Edge -1.1% | EV -4.0% | ROI -38.6% | n=110 | k=3.75

AI-agent: At 74 minutes, the score is tied 2-2 between Vallecano and Sociedad, with no red cards. Market pressure favors a draw, reflected by a 44% drop in odds from pre-match levels, but shot data does not clearly support either side. The hosts have applied more pressure recently, matching the balanced scoreline. Historical data strongly supports a +1.5 handicap for the home team, with a 98.2% win rate and a 21.7% ROI, confirmed by the model showing a 14.9% edge and 18.5% expected value. However, no new bet is opened as this position is already held. The top-4 markets suggest watching the home +1 handicap with a significant edge and EV, but no mandatory bet is advised now, indicating a monitoring phase rather than a clear entry opportunity.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 74