Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	2	0	0	7	1	6	2	-	3.1	1.82	1.62	-	-
Away	0	0	0	2	1	1	1	-	-	-	2.25	2.02	1.35

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.3	4.5	15	1.03	1.18	3.4	-	-	-	-	2	1.85	1.48	2.6

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +7.8% | EV +14.3% | ROI +51.9% | n=158 | k=1.82

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +18.8% | EV +58.3% | ROI +123.7% | n=158 | k=3.10

3) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +1.9% | EV +4.9% | ROI +94.2% | n=158 | k=2.60

4) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +1.9% | EV +3.6% | ROI -30.9% | n=158 | k=1.85

AI-agent: At 63 minutes in the Valencia vs Girona match, Valencia leads 2-0 with no red cards. Market pressure favors Valencia strongly, with odds dropping 42% from pre-match levels, reflecting their shot dominance despite a balanced game tempo recently. Historical data supports a -1 handicap on Valencia with a 90.5% win rate and a solid 51.9% ROI over 158 matches, confirming a reliable edge. The current model confirms this bet with a positive expected value of +14.3% and an edge of +7.8%, making AH_HOME-1 the best value bet here. Other markets show potential but are better suited for monitoring rather than immediate bets. Risk control advises sticking with the handicap -1 bet given the strong historical and live data alignment.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391137 | minute: 63