Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	2	0	0	10	3	7	2	-	3.7	1.9	1.62	-	-
Away	1	0	0	3	2	1	1	-	-	-	2.25	1.95	1.26

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.25	4.75	23	1.01	1.17	3.75	-	-	-	-	-	-	1.8	2.05

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +5.3% | EV +10.3% | ROI +1.7% | n=176 | k=1.95

2) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +2.4% | EV +4.9% | ROI +8.3% | n=176 | k=2.05

3) Watch | Double Chance X2 | Edge +2.2% | EV +8.3% | ROI -12.6% | n=176 | k=3.75

4) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -9.2% | EV -17.5% | ROI -4.9% | n=176 | k=1.90

AI-agent: At 74 minutes, Valencia leads Girona 2-1 in a closely contested LaLiga match. Market pressure favors the home side, with odds dropping 44% from pre-match levels, reflecting Valencia's slight dominance in shots, though recent play shows no sustained pressure from either team. Historical data for the away handicap +1 shows a modest edge with a 53.2% win rate and a positive ROI of 1.7%, supported by 176 similar matches. The best model pick is Girona +1 at 1.95 odds, offering a 5.3% edge and 10.3% expected value, but the entry conditions are not fully met given the current score and tempo, so this remains a watch situation. Top-4 markets also suggest monitoring rather than betting now, emphasizing risk control in this balanced scenario.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391137 | minute: 74