Match Replay

Step 14 of 64. Current minute: 21 .

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	2	1	1	0	-	-	2.5	1.98	-	-
Away	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	-	-	-	1.88	1.5	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.73	3.6	4.75	1.17	1.25	2	-	-	1.12	6	1.6	2.3	2.75	1.44

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) No Bet | Over 2.5 Goals | Edge -0.9% | EV -1.4% | ROI +4.5% | n=435 | k=1.60

2) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -1.6% | EV -4.1% | ROI +8.5% | n=435 | k=2.50

3) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -5.0% | EV -7.6% | ROI -12.5% | n=435 | k=1.50

4) No Bet | AWAY | Edge -1.4% | EV -6.5% | ROI -9.4% | n=435 | k=4.75

AI-agent: At 21 minutes into the Alaves vs Ath Bilbao match, Alaves leads 1-0 with no red cards. Market pressure favors the home side, reflected by a 36% drop in odds from pre-match levels, aligning with the current score and active shot count. The game tempo is balanced without sustained pressure from either team recently. Historical data on similar situations supports over 2.5 goals with a 65.3% win rate and positive ROI, but the current model edge is negative at -0.9%, below the threshold for a confident bet. Therefore, this is a monitoring phase rather than a clear betting opportunity, and caution is advised given the model's expected negative value. Historical checks are solid, but the market and model suggest waiting for clearer signals before placing a bet.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391149 | minute: 21