Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	2	1	1	1	-	-	2.6	1.98	-	-
Away	0	0	0	2	0	2	3	-	-	-	1.88	1.48	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.73	3.5	5	1.17	1.28	2	-	-	1.17	5	1.82	2.02	3.5	1.3

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Over 2.5 Goals | Edge +0.5% | EV +1.0% | ROI +7.3% | n=490 | k=1.82

2) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -2.2% | EV -5.6% | ROI +10.7% | n=490 | k=2.60

3) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -4.7% | EV -9.5% | ROI -16.5% | n=490 | k=2.02

4) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -4.1% | EV -6.0% | ROI -12.7% | n=490 | k=1.48

AI-agent: At the 30th minute in the Alaves vs Ath Bilbao match, Alaves leads 1-0 with no red cards. The market favors the home team, reflected by a 36% drop in odds from pre-match levels, aligning with the current score. The game has been fairly balanced, though Alaves shows more activity in shots and tempo compared to previous encounters, while Ath Bilbao is underperforming relative to their usual level. Historical data on similar situations supports a bet on over 2.5 goals with a positive ROI of 7.3%, but the model's edge at +0.5% is below the threshold for opening a bet. This is a monitoring scenario rather than a mandatory entry, so caution is advised despite the favorable trend for over 2.5 goals.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391149 | minute: 30