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Spain | LaLiga | Alaves - Ath Bilbao | 02.05.2026 | 21:30:00 | LIVE 33'   —   Alaves 1:0 Ath Bilbao
Side Goal Red Pen Shots Target Missed Corners POS -1.5 -1 AH0 +1 +1.5
Home 1 0 0 2 1 1 1 - - 2.67 1.98 - -
Away 0 0 0 2 0 2 3 - - - 1.88 1.45 -
W1 X W2 1X 12 X2 O0.5 U0.5 O1.5 U1.5 O2.5 U2.5 O3.5 U3.5
1.73 3.5 5 1.17 1.28 2 - - 1.2 4.5 1.88 1.98 3.75 1.28
TOP-4 markets ranking:
1) Watch | Over 2.5 Goals | Edge +0.7% | EV +1.3% | ROI +5.7% | n=504 | k=1.88
2) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -1.8% | EV -4.9% | ROI +12.7% | n=504 | k=2.67
3) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -4.7% | EV -9.2% | ROI -13.8% | n=504 | k=1.98
4) No Bet | Double Chance X2 | Edge -6.6% | EV -13.2% | ROI -19.0% | n=504 | k=2.00
AI-agent: At 33 minutes into the match, Alaves leads Ath Bilbao 1-0 with no red cards. Market pressure favors the home side, reflected by a 36% drop in odds from pre-match levels, aligning with the current score and active shots from Alaves. The game tempo is balanced without sustained pressure from either side recently. Historical data supports a slight edge for over 2.5 goals with a 56.3% win rate and positive ROI, but the model's edge at +0.7% is below the threshold for a confident bet. Therefore, this is a watch situation rather than a mandatory entry, with over 2.5 goals as the best candidate while managing risk carefully. Other markets show no favorable conditions for betting at this stage.
Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391149 | minute: 33