Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	2	0	0	2	2	0	0	-	2.2	2.2	1.38	-	-
Away	0	0	0	5	2	3	1	-	-	-	3	1.65	1.65

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.06	11	29	1.01	1.05	10	-	-	-	-	1.17	5	1.82	2.02

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +29.9% | EV +65.8% | ROI +73.1% | n=49 | k=2.20

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +19.4% | EV +42.6% | ROI +52.7% | n=49 | k=2.20

3) No Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge -0.8% | EV -1.6% | ROI -9.1% | n=49 | k=2.02

4) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -1.6% | EV -8.1% | ROI -49.0% | n=49 | k=5.00

AI-agent: At the 41st minute in the Celta vs Elche match, Celta leads 2-0 with no red cards. Market pressure favors the home side, with odds dropping 38% from pre-match levels, reflecting the current score. However, shot data does not clearly support dominance by either team, and recent play shows no sustained pressure. Historically, the AH_HOME-1 handicap has a strong record in similar situations, with an 87.2% win rate and 73.1% ROI over 49 matches. The model confirms a positive edge of +29.9% and expected value of +65.8% for AH_HOME-1 at odds of 2.20, but no new bet is opened as this position is already covered. The top recommended bet is AH_HOME-1, though risk control advises monitoring AH_HOME-1.5 as a watch option. Under markets show negative expected value, so no bets there. Overall, this is a favorable scenario for the home handicap, but current market coverage suggests cautious engagement rather than new entries.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391151 | minute: 41