Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	2	0	0	2	2	0	0	-	1.35	2.2	1.38	-	-
Away	0	0	0	5	2	3	1	-	-	-	3	1.65	3.1

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.06	11	29	1.01	1.05	10	-	-	-	-	1.2	4.5	1.95	1.9

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +30.5% | EV +67.0% | ROI +76.2% | n=53 | k=2.20

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +0.9% | EV +2.8% | ROI -6.4% | n=53 | k=3.10

3) No Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge -0.8% | EV -1.5% | ROI -10.4% | n=53 | k=1.90

4) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge -7.2% | EV -9.8% | ROI -5.8% | n=53 | k=1.35

AI-agent: At 44 minutes in the Celta vs Elche match, Celta leads 2-0 with no red cards. Market pressure favors the home side, reflected in a 38% drop in odds from pre-match levels, although shot data does not clearly confirm dominance. Historically, similar situations show a strong edge for the home team on AH -1, with a 90.2% win rate and a 76.2% ROI over 53 matches. The model confirms this with a +30.5% edge and +67.0% expected value at odds of 2.20. Since the AH_HOME-1 position is already open or covered, no new bet is advised now. This is a favorable scenario for the home handicap, but current market exposure should be managed carefully.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391151 | minute: 44