Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	2	0	0	4	3	1	3	-	1.2	2.2	1.38	-	-
Away	0	0	0	12	3	9	1	-	-	-	3	1.65	4.4

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.01	21	81	1	1.01	21	-	-	-	-	2.12	1.75	8	1.08

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +36.6% | EV +80.6% | ROI +84.9% | n=41 | k=2.20

2) No Bet | Over 2.5 Goals | Edge -1.0% | EV -2.2% | ROI +24.4% | n=41 | k=2.12

3) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -3.2% | EV -5.6% | ROI -27.4% | n=41 | k=1.75

4) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge -3.5% | EV -15.5% | ROI +28.8% | n=41 | k=4.40

AI-agent: At the 77th minute with Celta leading 2-0 against Elche, the market strongly favors the home side, reflected by a 40% drop in odds from pre-match levels. Despite the scoreline, shot data does not show clear dominance, and recent play lacks sustained pressure from either team. Historically, similar situations with a -1 handicap on the home team have yielded a 100% win rate and an impressive 84.9% ROI over 41 matches, confirming a strong edge. The model supports betting on AH_HOME-1 at odds of 2.20, with an expected value of +80.6%, though no new bet is opened as this position is already covered. This is a recommended bet with good risk control based on historical and current market analysis.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391151 | minute: 77