Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	3	0	0	4	3	1	3	-	1.11	2.2	1.38	-	-
Away	1	0	0	13	4	9	1	-	-	-	3	1.65	6.6

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1	41	301	1.17	1.22	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +37.3% | EV +82.2% | ROI +10.4% | n=50 | k=2.20

2) No Bet | Double Chance X2 | Edge -32.8% | EV -65.6% | ROI -28.0% | n=50 | k=2.00

3) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -43.4% | EV -71.6% | ROI -15.4% | n=50 | k=1.65

AI-agent: At the 85th minute, Celta leads Elche 3-1 in LaLiga. The market strongly favors the home side, with odds dropping 41% from pre-match levels, reflecting their lead despite Elche's better shot count. Recent pressure is balanced, and the scoreline slightly overstates Celta's dominance compared to the gameplay. Historical data supports a home handicap -1 bet with a 70% win rate and positive ROI, confirmed by the model showing a 37.3% edge and 82.2% expected value. The best betting opportunity remains on Celta -1 handicap, though no new position is opened as it may already be covered. This is a monitored situation with a clear edge but requires risk control given the match dynamics.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391151 | minute: 85