Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	-	-	3.3	1.43	1.45	-
Away	1	0	0	4	1	3	0	-	-	2.67	2.75	1.32	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
6.5	3.4	1.61	2.2	1.3	1.11	-	-	1.33	3.4	2.38	1.55	5.5	1.14

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +18.5% | EV +24.5% | ROI +11.0% | n=93 | k=1.32

2) Watch | Double Chance 12 | Edge +3.8% | EV +4.9% | ROI +4.2% | n=93 | k=1.30

3) No Bet | Over 2.5 Goals | Edge -3.9% | EV -9.2% | ROI +28.0% | n=93 | k=2.38

4) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -2.7% | EV -4.3% | ROI -10.1% | n=93 | k=1.55

AI-agent: At 38 minutes into the Getafe vs Vallecano match, Vallecano leads 1-0 with no red cards yet. Market pressure favors Vallecano, with odds dropping 59% from pre-match levels, reflecting their active shot count despite a close game. Historical data supports a +1 handicap for Vallecano with an 88.3% success rate and 11% ROI over 93 matches. The model highlights a promising +1 handicap bet at 1.32 odds with an 18.5% edge and 24.5% expected value, but entry conditions are not fully met due to current score and tempo. Top-4 markets suggest watching the +1 handicap and double chance for Vallecano, while over/under 2.5 goals are not advised. This is a monitoring phase rather than a mandatory bet, emphasizing cautious risk management.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391153 | minute: 38