Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	3	0	3	2	-	-	3.3	1.43	1.38	2.2
Away	1	0	0	4	1	3	0	-	1.65	3	2.75	1.32	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
21	8	1.12	6	1.08	1.01	-	-	1.55	2.38	1.38	3	2.75	1.43

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +30.3% | EV +90.9% | ROI -14.3% | n=28 | k=3.00

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +31.4% | EV +69.2% | ROI +72.9% | n=28 | k=2.20

3) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +18.6% | EV +24.7% | ROI +25.4% | n=28 | k=1.32

4) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -0.7% | EV -2.2% | ROI +135.7% | n=28 | k=3.00

AI-agent: At 45 minutes, Vallecano leads Getafe 1-0 in a closely contested LaLiga match. Market pressure favors the away side, with odds for Vallecano improving significantly since pre-match, reflecting their shot dominance despite Getafe's late pressure. Historical data on similar situations is limited and inconclusive, so the edge on the home handicap +1.5, while promising, lacks full confirmation. The best model suggestion is a home +1.5 handicap with good expected value, but entry conditions are not met yet, so this is a watch situation rather than a firm bet. Risk control advises monitoring the match dynamics before committing.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391153 | minute: 45