Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	7	1	6	4	-	-	3.3	1.43	1.43	2.2
Away	1	0	0	8	4	4	0	-	1.65	2.75	2.75	1.32	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
11	3.6	1.44	2.62	1.25	1.05	-	-	1.62	2.25	4.33	1.22	13	1.04

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +45.1% | EV +99.3% | ROI +76.0% | n=25 | k=2.20

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +18.8% | EV +24.9% | ROI +29.9% | n=25 | k=1.32

3) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +1.9% | EV +2.7% | ROI -3.0% | n=25 | k=1.42

4) No Bet | Over 1.5 Goals | Edge -3.0% | EV -4.8% | ROI +10.5% | n=25 | k=1.62

AI-agent: At the 62nd minute with Vallecano leading 1-0, the market strongly favors the away side, reflected by a 65% drop in odds from pre-match levels. The match has been balanced but Vallecano shows more shot activity, though no sustained pressure is evident recently. Historical data for similar situations suggests a strong edge on Getafe +1.5 Asian Handicap with an 80% win rate and 76% ROI, but the sample size is slightly below the preferred threshold, making the historical confidence weak. The model identifies Getafe +1.5 AH as the best bet with a 45.1% edge and nearly 100% expected value; however, the entry conditions are not fully met given the current score and match tempo, so this remains a watch situation rather than a firm bet. Overall, this is a monitoring phase with promising indicators but no mandatory entry yet, and risk should be managed carefully if considering a stake.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391153 | minute: 62