Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	8	1	7	4	-	-	3.3	1.43	1.43	2.2
Away	1	0	0	8	4	4	0	-	1.65	2.75	2.75	1.32	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
13	3.6	1.4	2.75	1.25	1.04	-	-	1.77	2.1	5	1.17	17	1.02

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +47.2% | EV +103.8% | ROI +76.0% | n=25 | k=2.20

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +18.8% | EV +25.0% | ROI +29.9% | n=25 | k=1.32

3) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +6.2% | EV +8.8% | ROI -4.7% | n=25 | k=1.42

4) No Bet | Over 1.5 Goals | Edge -1.6% | EV -2.9% | ROI +6.5% | n=25 | k=1.77

AI-agent: At 68 minutes with Vallecano leading 1-0, the market shows strong support for the home team with the Asian Handicap +1.5 at 2.20 odds, reflecting a significant model edge of +47.2% and expected value over +100%. However, the entry conditions are not fully met due to the current scoreline and match tempo, so this is a watch situation rather than a firm bet. Historical data is limited and does not fully confirm this opportunity, making the historical check weak. Overall, the match is balanced with Vallecano slightly more active in shots, but no sustained pressure from either side recently, suggesting cautious monitoring rather than immediate action.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391153 | minute: 68