Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	10	2	8	4	-	-	3.3	1.43	1.45	2.2
Away	1	0	0	8	4	4	0	-	1.65	2.67	2.75	1.32	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
19	3.75	1.36	3	1.25	1.02	-	-	1.95	1.9	6.5	1.11	21	1.01

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +48.6% | EV +106.8% | ROI +77.7% | n=26 | k=2.20

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +18.9% | EV +25.0% | ROI +30.0% | n=26 | k=1.32

3) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +10.1% | EV +14.7% | ROI -3.7% | n=26 | k=1.45

4) No Bet | Over 1.5 Goals | Edge -1.4% | EV -2.8% | ROI +12.5% | n=26 | k=1.95

AI-agent: At 71 minutes, Vallecano leads Getafe 1-0, with no red cards yet. Market pressure favors the away side, reflected by a 67% drop in odds from pre-match levels, though shot data does not clearly support dominance. The home team is pressing more in recent minutes but lacks a clear advantage overall. Historical data on similar situations suggests a strong edge for a +1.5 handicap on Getafe, with good ROI, but the sample size is slightly below the preferred threshold, making the historical check weak. The model identifies AH_HOME+1.5 as the best bet with a significant edge and expected value, yet entry conditions are not fully met due to current score and match tempo. According to top markets, this is a watch situation rather than a mandatory bet, recommending monitoring the game closely before committing to a wager to manage risk effectively.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391153 | minute: 71