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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	3	0	0	14	3	11	5	-	2.5	2.3	1.32	-	-
Away	1	0	0	7	2	5	0	-	-	-	3.3	1.6	1.5

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.01	26	81	1	1.01	26	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +43.0% | EV +107.5% | ROI +114.3% | n=14 | k=2.50

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +40.8% | EV +93.8% | ROI +111.4% | n=14 | k=2.30

3) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -46.8% | EV -74.8% | ROI -85.7% | n=14 | k=1.60

4) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge -49.7% | EV -74.5% | ROI -78.6% | n=14 | k=1.50

AI-agent: At 78 minutes with Villarreal leading 3-1, the market strongly favors the home side, reflected by a 42% drop in odds from pre-match levels. Although Villarreal has been more active in shots, recent play shows no sustained pressure from either team. Historical data on similar situations is limited and does not fully confirm the bet, despite a strong model signal for a -1 handicap with good expected value and edge. The top-4 markets suggest watching the -1 and -1.5 handicaps due to positive expected returns but advise caution as the sample size is small. This is a monitoring opportunity rather than a mandatory bet, emphasizing risk control given the current match dynamics and historical uncertainty.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391158 | minute: 78