Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	11	6	5	3	-	2.35	1.82	1.21	-	-
Away	0	0	0	7	2	5	1	-	-	-	4.25	2.02	1.57

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
2.3	1.95	9	1.07	1.73	1.53	1.67	2.2	4.33	1.22	13	1.04	2.62	1.5

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +27.1% | EV +42.8% | ROI +50.4% | n=399 | k=1.57

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +39.5% | EV +79.9% | ROI +76.9% | n=399 | k=2.02

3) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +26.4% | EV +39.6% | ROI +43.6% | n=399 | k=1.50

4) Watch | Double Chance X2 | Edge +9.4% | EV +14.4% | ROI +21.8% | n=399 | k=1.53

AI-agent: At 70 minutes, the match between Atalanta and Genoa remains goalless with no red cards, and the market strongly favors a draw, reflected by a 56% drop in odds from pre-match levels. Atalanta is pressing more actively, consistent with recent shot statistics and a slightly more aggressive tempo compared to their last encounter in December 2025, which ended 0:1. Historical data supports a strong edge on the away handicap +1.5, with a 95.5% win rate over 399 matches and a solid ROI of 50.4%. The model confirms this bet with a 27.1% edge and 42.8% expected value, although no new position is opened as this bet is already covered in the portfolio. The top recommended bet is on AH_AWAY+1.5 at odds of 1.57, offering a favorable risk-reward profile. Other markets like AH_AWAY+1, Under 3.5 goals, and Double Chance X2 are on watch, suggesting a monitoring phase rather than mandatory entry now.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1378204 | minute: 70