Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	4	2	2	0	-	2.35	1.68	1.65	1.65	-
Away	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	-	-	2.2	2.2	2.15	1.57

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.4	4.5	8	1.08	1.18	2.75	-	-	1.11	6.5	1.53	2.5	2.62	1.5

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +32.6% | EV +53.8% | ROI +49.9% | n=484 | k=1.65

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +5.2% | EV +8.2% | ROI +6.4% | n=484 | k=1.57

3) No Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge -0.6% | EV -0.9% | ROI +4.1% | n=484 | k=1.50

4) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -3.3% | EV -7.1% | ROI +13.2% | n=484 | k=2.15

AI-agent: At 29 minutes in the Sassuolo vs Milan match, Sassuolo leads 1-0 with no red cards. Market pressure favors the home side, with odds dropping 69% from pre-match levels, reflecting their current advantage in shots despite Milan being pre-match favorites. Recent play shows no sustained pressure from either side. Historical data supports a strong edge for the home team with Asian Handicap +1, showing a 95.1% win rate and nearly 50% ROI over 484 matches. The model identifies AH_HOME+1 at 1.65 odds with a 32.6% edge and 53.8% expected value, but the entry conditions are not fully met yet, so this is a watch situation rather than a firm bet. Risk control suggests monitoring this market closely before committing.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1378212 | minute: 29