Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	6	2	4	1	-	2.5	1.7	1.65	1.65	-
Away	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	-	-	2.2	2.2	2.1	1.5

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.36	4.5	10	1.06	1.18	3	-	-	1.2	4.5	1.98	1.88	4	1.25

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +32.8% | EV +54.1% | ROI +54.0% | n=467 | k=1.65

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +2.6% | EV +4.0% | ROI +9.5% | n=467 | k=1.50

3) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -1.6% | EV -2.9% | ROI +7.2% | n=467 | k=1.88

4) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -4.5% | EV -9.4% | ROI +17.5% | n=467 | k=2.10

AI-agent: At 45 minutes, Sassuolo leads Milan 1-0 with no red cards. Market pressure favors the home side, with odds dropping 70% from pre-match levels, reflecting their current dominance in shots and tempo. Historical data strongly supports a home handicap +1 bet, showing a 97.4% win rate and 54% ROI over 467 matches. The model identifies a +32.8% edge and +54.1% expected value on AH_HOME+1 at 1.65 odds, but entry conditions are not fully met due to the current score and match dynamics. Top-4 markets suggest watching AH_HOME+1 as the best option, while other bets are less favorable. This is a monitoring situation rather than a mandatory bet, emphasizing risk control and waiting for clearer confirmation.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1378212 | minute: 45