Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	2	0	0	7	3	4	1	-	1.32	1.75	1.65	1.65	-
Away	0	0	0	3	0	3	3	-	-	2.2	2.2	2.12	3.3

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.05	13	34	1	1.04	11	-	-	-	-	1.3	3.5	2.35	1.57

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +33.1% | EV +54.7% | ROI +63.0% | n=163 | k=1.65

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +27.0% | EV +89.2% | ROI +1.2% | n=163 | k=3.30

3) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +21.3% | EV +37.3% | ROI +44.6% | n=163 | k=1.75

4) No Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge -1.1% | EV -1.7% | ROI +3.4% | n=163 | k=1.57

AI-agent: At 53 minutes, Sassuolo leads Milan 2-0 with no red cards. Market pressure favors the home side, reflected by a 77% drop in odds from pre-match levels, aligning with the current score. Sassuolo shows more shots and activity than Milan, though recent play lacks sustained dominance from either team. Historical data strongly supports a home handicap +1 bet with a 100% win rate and 63% ROI in similar situations. The model identifies a +33.1% edge and +54.7% expected value on this bet at odds of 1.65, but entry conditions are not fully met yet, so this is a monitoring opportunity rather than a confirmed bet. Top-4 markets also suggest watching the home +1 handicap and away +1.5, while under 3.5 goals is not recommended now due to negative expected value.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1378212 | minute: 53